First it was Democrat Joe Lieberman endorsing Republican John McCain for President. Then we found out that former GOP Secretary of State Colin Powell is considering voting for Obama in November. Finally, long time Republican Senator Chuck Hagel has even accompanied Obama on his week long campaign visit to the Middle East and Western Europe. Of course this sort of crossing the aisle is nothing new: everyone remembers Democratic Senator Zell Miller’s bizarre appearance as the keynote speaker at the 2004 Republican convention, for example. But what makes this year unique is the persistent speculation that Lieberman might join the McCain ticket or Hagel might join the Obama ticket. Does this make sense for either candidate?
Probably not for McCain. McCain does need a bold pick (Jindal or Palin would do), but picking Lieberman exposes one of his biggest weaknesses: the wavering support of the religious right. Aside from foreign policy, Lieberman’s relatively liberal. If McCain adds a pro-choice semi-Democrat to the ticket, the religious right might very well stay home. Plus Lieberman has alienated so many Democrats with his defeat of Ned Lamont in 2006 and his premature criticism of Obama that it remains to be seen just how many new votes he would carry as a vice-presidential candidate. McCain would probably do better to shore up his base with a more conservative pick, or broaden his appeal with a like-minded moderate Republican.
Hagel makes more sense for the Obama ticket than Lieberman does for the McCain ticket. If Obama picked the Nebraska Republican he might be able to reclaim some of his early bipartisan credentials that were overwhelmed by “most liberal senator in the Senate” accusations. Plus Hagel would add a strong military and foreign policy resume to a ticket mostly bereft of any international experience. And Hagel’s even more popular among Nebraska Democrats than Republicans, at least according to one poll.
Obama with Senator Hagel and General Petraeus in Iraq.
Still, Hagel’s right of center (although in a libertarian sort of way) and would no doubt ruffle a few feathers amongst Obama’s far left coterie (that’s already angry about shifts to the center on Iraq, campaign finance, and trade). My guess is that Hagel lands a Cabinet level position in the Obama administration, most likely Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense. But he wouldn’t make a half-bad veep pick either. Obama clearly likes Hagel enough to invite him on his overseas trip and that’s critical in the selection process.
Will Democrats and Republicans share the White House next year? I doubt it, but an Obama-Hagel ticket might make sense. Thoughts?
Mark Halperin, Matt Drudge, etc. are buzzing about a report from Robert Novak that John McCain will make his vice-presidential selection later this week. Meanwhile, Chris Cillizza comments on McCain’s unexpected (and strategically puzzling) decision to travel to New Orleans this Thursday to meet with Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Coincidence? Doubtful.
But does McCain really think that a 37 year old unknown with reputedly scant experience can convince the American people that he’s ready to serve as president should the unthinkable happen? Intrade, which specializes in political futures, doesn’t think so. It currently gives Jindal just a 9.2% chance of becoming the Republican veep pick — decent odds but well behind Mitt Romney at 38.5% and still trailing obscure Alaska Governor Sarah Palin at 15.0% and Minnesota’s relatively bland executive Tim Pawlenty at 11.0%.
But I’d take the Jindal veep talk more seriously than the “Intraders” for three reasons:
[1] Jindal’s more experienced than you think. Before reaching the age of 29, Jindal had already run Louisiana’s massive Department of Health and Hospitals and been named President of the University of Louisiana system. In 2001 he was nominated for and served nearly two years as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services before entering Congress in 2005 and the Louisiana governor’s mansion in early 2008. This political resume compares quite favorably with Barack Obama’s seven years in the Illinois Senate and three-plus years in the US Senate.
[2] Jindal’s a very appealing politician. Think John Edwards but of Indian descent and without the $400 haircuts (and a lot more conservative). Anyone who caught Jindal’s appearance on The Tonight Show back in April saw a star in the making.
[3] A conventional pick just won’t do this time around. McCain’s campaign is in rough shape: a PPP poll out today shows Obama +8 in Ohio, a margin that if it holds would sound the death knell for McCain’s presidential ambitions. Obama, meanwhile, is making all the news with his tour of the Middle East and Western Europe; meetings with Karzai, Maliki, Sarkozy, Merkel, and Brown are likely to enhance his growing presidential aura. And Chuck Hagel (accompanying Obama on his trip) is close to becoming Obama’s version of Joe Lieberman. The point is that McCain needs a bold VP pick, someone who could inject some life into his decrepit campaign. Jindal — smart, charismatic, and not an old white man — could be the answer.
If Novak’s right we’ll find out later this week. Stay tuned…
