Colin Powell endorses Obama: the end of the McCain campaign?

Earlier today Colin Powell announced his endorsement of Barack Obama for President. What does this mean?

[1] Fewer people making an issue of Barack Obama’s limited experience.

[2] More people wondering what John McCain was thinking when he picked Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

[3] More people criticizing McCain for the Bill Ayers guilt by association attacks on Obama.

[4] More people accepting Obama’s claim that he can work with Democrats and Republicans alike.

[5] Some people wondering if race had anything to do with Powell’s endorsement.

Powell’s endorsement is big, much bigger than any other previous endorsement (although that’s been said about many endorsements including Kennedy’s and Kerry’s). I don’t see how McCain can recover, especially since so many of his attacks on Obama (lack of experience, liberalness, Bill Ayers association) are directly or indirectly refuted by Powell.  I’ll be interested to see what the McCain campaign does for the next two weeks.

Any chance McCain or Obama shares the ticket with the other party?

First it was Democrat Joe Lieberman endorsing Republican John McCain for President. Then we found out that former GOP Secretary of State Colin Powell is considering voting for Obama in November. Finally, long time Republican Senator Chuck Hagel has even accompanied Obama on his week long campaign visit to the Middle East and Western Europe. Of course this sort of crossing the aisle is nothing new: everyone remembers Democratic Senator Zell Miller’s bizarre appearance as the keynote speaker at the 2004 Republican convention, for example. But what makes this year unique is the persistent speculation that Lieberman might join the McCain ticket or Hagel might join the Obama ticket. Does this make sense for either candidate?

Probably not for McCain. McCain does need a bold pick (Jindal or Palin would do), but picking Lieberman exposes one of his biggest weaknesses: the wavering support of the religious right. Aside from foreign policy, Lieberman’s relatively liberal. If McCain adds a pro-choice semi-Democrat to the ticket, the religious right might very well stay home. Plus Lieberman has alienated so many Democrats with his defeat of Ned Lamont in 2006 and his premature criticism of Obama that it remains to be seen just how many new votes he would carry as a vice-presidential candidate. McCain would probably do better to shore up his base with a more conservative pick, or broaden his appeal with a like-minded moderate Republican.

Hagel makes more sense for the Obama ticket than Lieberman does for the McCain ticket. If Obama picked the Nebraska Republican he might be able to reclaim some of his early bipartisan credentials that were overwhelmed by “most liberal senator in the Senate” accusations. Plus Hagel would add a strong military and foreign policy resume to a ticket mostly bereft of any international experience. And Hagel’s even more popular among Nebraska Democrats than Republicans, at least according to one poll.

Obama with Senator Hagel and General Petraeus in Iraq.

Still, Hagel’s right of center (although in a libertarian sort of way) and would no doubt ruffle a few feathers amongst Obama’s far left coterie (that’s already angry about shifts to the center on Iraq, campaign finance, and trade). My guess is that Hagel lands a Cabinet level position in the Obama administration, most likely Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense. But he wouldn’t make a half-bad veep pick either. Obama clearly likes Hagel enough to invite him on his overseas trip and that’s critical in the selection process.

Will Democrats and Republicans share the White House next year? I doubt it, but an Obama-Hagel ticket might make sense. Thoughts?